By T.J. Buffenbarger
(August 17, 2026) — The 2026 NOS Energy Drink Knoxville Nationals presented by Casey’s is complete, which means it is time to review my seeding of all 101 drivers that were pre-entered by Monday morning for the event.
With several teams opting out of Friday and Saturday’s program due to the weather and format change, the seeds from this year may not be useful in future planning as the results were a fiasco.
Below is the list by finishing position, where the driver was seeded, and how far off I was on their position.
1-10
| Pos | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 1 | 57-Kyle Larson | 24 | 23 |
| 2 | 18-Sheldon Haudenschild | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 4-Kasey Kahne | 62 | 59 |
| 4 | 21T-James McFadden | 27 | 23 |
| 5 | 1S-Logan Schuchart | 9 | 4 |
| 6 | 2-David Gravel | 2 | -4 |
| 7 | 83-Michael Kofoid | 12 | 5 |
| 8 | 71-Parker Price Miller | 19 | 11 |
| 9 | 19-Brent Marks | 11 | 2 |
| 10 | 23D-Chase Dietz | 22 | 12 |
I obviously did not think there would be a scenario that Kyle Larson would return for Saturday night’s program. I was certain Knoxville Raceway officials would do everything in their power to complete the program on Saturday night or early Sunday morning, but I never thought the delay would be long enough for Larson to fly back to Knoxville.
On a positive note, half of these seeds were accurate as I strive to be within five positions where a driver might finish. I barely missed out on that goal with Parker Price-Miller and Chase Dietz.
Kasey Kahne and James McFadden outperformed their seeds by a large margin. Kahne’s result in particular was a pleasant surprise with the quality of performance all week I expected when he returned to sprint cars following his retirement from NASCAR.
11-25
| Pos | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 11 | 13-Tanner Holmes | 31 | 20 |
| 12 | 11-Justin Henderson | 20 | 8 |
| 13 | 7BC-Tyler Courtney | 10 | -3 |
| 14 | 14-Corey Day | 6 | -8 |
| 15 | 23-Garet Williamson | 14 | -1 |
| 16 | 28-Jace Park | 33 | 17 |
| 17 | 14TSR-Rico Abreu | 3 | -14 |
| 18 | 2C-Cole Macedo | 30 | 12 |
| 19 | 88T-Tanner Thorson | 51 | 32 |
| 20 | 42-Sye Lynch | 63 | 43 |
| 21 | 41-Carson Macedo | 7 | -14 |
| 22 | 69K-Daryn Pittman | 17 | -5 |
| 23 | 21-Brian Brown | 21 | -2 |
| 24 | 88W-Austin McCarl | 15 | -9 |
| 25 | 87-Aaron Reutzel | 5 | -20 |
Only four of the next 25 drivers were within the margin of error of +/- five in this group. Garet Williamson, Brian Brown, and Tyler Courtney were almost right on.
Sye Lynch, Tanner Thorson, and Tanner Holmes far outperformed the seeds I gave them. Holmes was particularly impressive with his daring outside passes in the B and A-Mains while Lynch had his elbows up in the B-Main, driving as hard as I’ve ever seen him do so in person. Thorson also drove to the level I felt he was capable of coming off the ownership change of his charter with High Limit Racing.
On the other end of the spectrum Rico Abreu and Aaron Reutzel far underperformed the seeds I gave them, which was surprising considering the speed both showed leading into the Nationals.
26-50
| Pos | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 26 | 17-Spencer Bayston | 39 | 13 |
| 27 | 17B-Bill Balog | 34 | 7 |
| 28 | 3P-Sawyer Phillips | 68 | 40 |
| 29 | 1TZ-Tasker Phillips | 29 | 0 |
| 30 | 1X-Scott Bogucki | 53 | 23 |
| 31 | 10-Ryan Timms | 1 | -30 |
| 32 | 25-Jy Corbet | 55 | 23 |
| 33 | 16C-Skylar Gee | 46 | 13 |
| 34 | 15K-Creed Kemenah | 91 | 57 |
| 35 | 74-Xavier Doney | 71 | 36 |
| 36 | 6T-Zach Hampton | 89 | 53 |
| 37 | 48-Danny Dietrich | 50 | 13 |
| 38 | 55-Kerry Madsen | 28 | -10 |
| 39 | 19HM-Kaleb Johnson | 66 | 27 |
| 40 | 44-Chris Martin | 35 | -5 |
| 41 | 24D-Danny Sams III | 61 | 20 |
| 42 | 15H-Sam Hafertepe Jr | 36 | -6 |
| 43 | 26-Justin Peck | 23 | -20 |
| 44 | 27A-Emerson Axsom | 18 | -26 |
| 45 | 9R-Chase Randal | 38 | -7 |
| 46 | 21H-Brady Bacon | 26 | -20 |
| 47 | 22-Riley Goodno | 69 | 22 |
| 48 | 9P-Daison Pursley | 32 | -16 |
| 49 | 15-Donny Schatz | 13 | -36 |
| 50 | 53-Jack Dover | 87 | 37 |
I would like to forget this group of seeds even happened. Out of 25 drivers, only one was within the five-spot tolerance I was aiming for.
Ryan Timms and Emerson Axsom were my biggest misses that finished significantly lower than their seeds. Both were hurt by the change in Friday format and misfortunes during their preliminary night.
On the other side of the inaccuracies, Creed Kemenah blew away his seeding, improving a whopping 57 positions from where I seeded him, which I should have seen coming with his recent uptick in performance. I was not confident that would translate to Knoxville, but Kemenah was impressive in just missing out of the Knoxville Nationals rookie of the year honors.
51-75
| Pos | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 51 | 51-Steven Snyder Jr | 76 | 25 |
| 52 | 12X-Landon Crawley | 47 | -5 |
| 53 | 09-Matt Juhl | 73 | 20 |
| 54 | 7S-Chris Windom | 43 | -11 |
| 55 | 33W-Cap Henry | 40 | -15 |
| 56 | 11N-Darin Naida | 86 | 30 |
| 57 | 6-Kasey Jedrzejek | 80 | 23 |
| 58 | 40-Clint Garner | 78 | 20 |
| 59 | 2M-JJ Hickle | 25 | -34 |
| 60 | 45X-Rees Moran | 49 | -11 |
| 61 | 49-Josh Schneiderman | 79 | 18 |
| 62 | 1K-Kelby Watt | 59 | -3 |
| 63 | 26R-Levi Hillier | 52 | -11 |
| 64 | 27-Carson McCarl | 44 | -20 |
| 65 | 0-Lynton Jeffrey | 41 | -24 |
| 66 | 17A-Jack Anderson | 48 | -18 |
| 67 | 45D-Derek Hagar | 58 | -9 |
| 68 | 4C-Cameron Martin | 37 | -31 |
| 69 | G5-Gage Pulkrabek | 95 | 26 |
| 70 | 23L-Jimmy Light | 92 | 22 |
| 71 | 14T-Brooke Tatnell | 70 | -1 |
| 72 | 15JR-Cole Mincer | 88 | 16 |
| 73 | 15J-Kade Higday | 65 | -8 |
| 74 | 121-RJ Johnson | 100 | 26 |
| 75 | 28M-Conner Morrell | 90 | 15 |
In this group I hit three drivers in the tolerance I was looking for, but most of these were double digit swings that can be explained in the next group.
Darin Naida, Gage Pulkrabek, and R.J. Johnson significantly improved from where I seeded them.
On the other side of the inaccuracies, J.J. Hickle and Cam Martin had terrible weeks during the Knoxville Nationals, which were reflected in the miss on their seedings.
76-101
| Pos | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 76 | 44X-Scotty Johnson | 72 | -4 |
| 77 | 7B-Ben Brown | 93 | 16 |
| 78 | 27B-Garrett Benson | 94 | 16 |
| 79 | 6DC-Will Armitage | 85 | 6 |
| 80 | 3-Ayrton Gennetten | 75 | -5 |
| DNS | 77 – Giovanni Scelzi | 8 | |
| DNS | 39m – Anthony Macri | 16 | |
| DNS | 2KS – Hank Davis | 42 | |
| DNS | 87x – Ashton Torgerson | 45 | |
| DNS | 1 – Sammy Swindell | 54 | |
| DNS | 31D-Cale Thomas | 56 | |
| DNS | 24 – Terry McCarl | 57 | |
| DNS | 17GP – Brock Zearfoss | 60 | |
| DNS | 5 – Brenham Crouch | 64 | |
| DNS | 24T – Christopher Thram | 67 | |
| DNS | 4W – Jamie Ball | 74 | |
| DNS | 19H – Joel Myers Jr. | 77 | |
| DNS | 85J – Logan Julien | 81 | |
| DNS | 95 – Matt Covington | 82 | |
| DNS | 1M – Sean McClelland | 83 | |
| DNS | 111 – Roger Crockett | 84 | |
| DNS | 8 – John Carney | 96 | |
| DNS | 11R – Rodney Huband | 97 | |
| DNS | 10V – Joe Beaver | 98 | |
| DNS | 16g – Austyn Gossel | 99 | |
| DNS | 56 – Joe Simbro | 101 |
20 drivers that were entered as of Sunday night did not participate in the Knoxville Nationals finale. Some like Anthony Macri were injured before and did not participate at all, Roger Crockett Terry McCarl, and Roger Crockett did not compete after entering, while the rest suffered from crashes, mechanical issues, or just opted not to participate in the finale.
Out of the five drivers that did compete, Scott Johnson and Ayrton Gennetten were within my margin of error
In conclusion…
This was the most frustrating year for the seeding, which went with the weather that turned this edition of the Knoxville Nationals into an all-night affair on Saturday, forcing Knoxville Raceway officials to make a lot of difficult decisions while still managing to produce the finale for everyone on Saturday into Sunday morning.
Hopefully we go another 12 years before having to endure another spell of weather at the Knoxville Nationals like everyone had to endure this year.