By T.J. Buffenbarger
(August 4, 2024) — Over the past several seasons one of the debates that takes place surrounding the Knoxville Nationals is the level of difficulty between the two preliminary nights. On our social media channels, I have shown the difficulty some of the top qualifiers have experienced getting transferred through their heat races as the night progresses. This tends to get people fired up, particularly on Wednesday night.
I went and did a deeper dive into the top 16 drivers in points after the two preliminary nights and the Saturday A-Main over the past three seasons to get a better look at some of the trends to see if the advantage is indeed there or just perceived.
The Wednesday/Thursday field split is more even than some think…
Every year Knoxville Raceway officials do their best to divide up the talent between the two preliminary nights while trying to accommodate the race teams’ wishes and needs for competing either on Wednesday or Thursday.
Looking at the top 16 in points after the preliminary features and the overall 24 car field to see which preliminary night they competed in uncovered the most interesting numbers of this endeavor.
| Top 16 from Prelminaries 2021-2023 | ||
| 2021 | Wednesday | 9 |
| 2021 | Thursday | 7 |
| 2022 | Wednesday | 6 |
| 2022 | Thursday | 10 |
| 2023 | Wednesday | 6 |
| 2023 | Thursday | 10 |
| Saturday A-Main 2021-2023 | ||
| 2021 | Wednesday | 12 |
| 2021 | Thursday | 12 |
| 2022 | Wednesday | 11 |
| 2022 | Thursday | 13 |
| 2023 | Wednesday | 13 |
| 2023 | Thursday | 11 |
I was not surprised that Thursday has produced more drivers locked into the top 16 in points after the preliminary events are completed, particularly the past two years. The heat races have proven to be difficult for the fastest qualifiers to qualify. However, I was not expecting those numbers to even out after the field was set or in the case of 2023 surpass the number of cars that ran Wednesday.
In 2023 once the top 16 points were locked into the field, only one other driver from Thursday night’s preliminary feature made the A-Main. Wednesday night competitors swept the four transfer positions in Friday’s “Hard Knox” program and three out of the four transfers in Saturday night’s B-Main event were Wednesday competitors.
Looking at these numbers one can argue that the lack of cars failing the transfer out of Wednesday may not be entirely from the track racing narrower at the start of the event, but the depth of talent taking part in that program.
the Knoxville Nationals are not supposed to be easy…
The level of competition in the 410 Sprint Car division in this era is extremely high. With the Knoxville Nationals bringing the largest number of high-level teams to a single location, just making the A-Main on Saturday is an accomplishment.
Part of this is due to the format which pushes drivers and teams to their limits over the four nights of competition. To lock into the top 16 in points for the Knoxville Nationals you must not only qualify well but maintain or move forward in every race.
From 2021 to 2023 a total of 34 drivers have locked into the preliminary feature through their qualifying nights. During that period only Brad Sweet, Donny Schatz, and Kyle Larson have managed to lock themselves into Saturday’s A-Main through their preliminary nights on all three occasions. In addition, Carson Macedo and Buddy Kofoid are the only drivers, along with the trio mentioned above, that have managed to lock in through their preliminary nights the past two seasons.
Top contenders such as David Gravel and Justin Peck last year often run into issues making their way through the Knoxville Nationals gauntlet. Giovanni Scelzi went from starting on the pole in 2021 to having to transfer through the B-Main in 2022.
What about the qualifying draw….?
The other thing I wanted to examine was the qualifying draw and how that impacted the drivers that were locked into the field from Wednesday and Thursday. What I found challenged some of my thoughts on the subject. (Click graphic for a larger version)
The past three Knoxville Nationals winners have gone out for qualifying 32nd, 8th, and 40th with Kyle Larson winning the race from both the front and back side of preliminary night draws.
When looking through all the drivers that have locked in the past three years 19 of the 48 drivers that locked into Saturday’s A-Main through their preliminary night went out for qualifying 25th or later. Nine of them went out 35th or later.
In conclusion…
After running the numbers, the two Knoxville Nationals preliminary nights were more even than I expected once the Saturday night field is set. While it’s clear the Wednesday night competitors have had a rough go of it on their actual preliminary night, but the top drivers that did not lock in through that night were able to rally and make Saturday night’s A-Main.