By T.J. Buffenbarger
(August 12, 2024) — The 2024 Knoxville Nationals are in the books and it’s time to face the music on how well or poorly I did seeding the entire field for the event.
When I first started running the numbers I thought I was way off on most of the picks. Out of all 108 seeds only one finished exactly where I predicted they would run. Once the math was done I was within 10 positions of 41 of the 108 drivers I seeded in the event. 15 of the seeds were 25 spots off or worse. The A-Main starters themselves were not far off as only five of the 24 starters in the A-Main were seeded outside of the top 24 with one not being seeded before the deadline.
Not as good as I hoped, but not as bad as I feared once before getting home.
Here is how all the seedings broke down by finish from Saturday night’ s finale.
Positions 1-10
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 1 | 57-Kyle Larson | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 18-Giovanni Scelzi | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | 14-Corey Day | 4 | 1 |
| 4 | 41-Carson Macedo | 9 | 5 |
| 5 | 39M-Anthony Macri | 20 | 15 |
| 6 | 21-Brian Brown | 18 | 12 |
| 7 | 7BC-Tyler Courtney | 6 | -1 |
| 8 | 10-Scott Bogucki | 26 | 18 |
| 9 | 17-Sheldon Haudenschild | 16 | 7 |
| 10 | 1A-Jacob Allen | 23 | 13 |
It was not difficult to place Kyle Larson, Giovanni Scelzi, and Corey Day near the top of the list. I had some call my seeding of Day that high bold, but I felt he had a real shot at winning the Nationals, which he proved on Saturday.
Brian Brown, Jacob Allen, Anthony Macri, and Scott Bogucki outperformed their seeds significantly. I had Bogucki higher originally but was not sure if the crash at Jackson Motorplex before the Knoxville Nationals would impact their performance.
Positions 11-25
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 11 | 69K-Daryn Pittman | 14 | 3 |
| 12 | 2-David Gravel | 1 | -11 |
| 13 | 15-Donny Schatz | 3 | -10 |
| 14 | 1S-Logan Schuchart | 8 | -6 |
| 15 | 21H-Brady Bacon | 57 | 42 |
| 16 | 13-Justin Peck | 13 | -3 |
| 17 | 83JR-James McFadden | 12 | -5 |
| 18 | 17B-Bill Balog | 53 | 35 |
| 19 | 49-Brad Sweet | 7 | -12 |
| 20 | 27A-Emerson Axsom | 21 | 1 |
| 21 | 19-Brent Marks | 27 | 6 |
| 22 | 2KS-Chase Randall | 24 | 2 |
| 23 | 24R-Rico Abreu | 10 | -13 |
| 24 | 5-Justin Henderson | NS | NA |
| 25 | 3Z-Brock Zearfoss | 42 | 17 |
Hat shakes to Bill Balog (+35) and Brady Bacon (+42) in the seeding, both making their first Knoxville Nationals A-Main events. Honorable mention to Brock Zearfoss going +17 as well along with Justin Henderson, who was not seeded making the A-Main.
Having David Gravel, Donny Schatz, Brad Sweet and Rico Abreu stumble as high seeds, with Gravel having the overall #1 seed, was rough on my results, all of which were in the top 10.
I did take some grief over my Daryn Pittman seeding, especially after his preliminary night performance. I was surprised by the time Saturday shook out I was only +3 on his seeding.
Positions 26-50
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 26 | 3J-Dusty Zomer | 51 | 25 |
| 27 | 8-Cory Eliason | 33 | 6 |
| 28 | 83-Buddy Kofoid | 11 | -17 |
| 29 | 5-Spencer Bayston | 22 | -7 |
| 30 | 21T-Cole Macedo | 43 | 13 |
| 31 | 09-Matt Juhl | 48 | 17 |
| 32 | 9P-Parker Price-Miller | 19 | -13 |
| 33 | 23-Garet Williamson | 25 | -8 |
| 34 | 99-Skylar Gee | 56 | 22 |
| 35 | 19s-Hunter Schuerenberg | 32 | -3 |
| 36 | 48-Danny Dietrich | 35 | -1 |
| 37 | 55C-Chris Windom | 49 | 12 |
| 38 | 1C-Brenham Crouch | 41 | 3 |
| 39 | 33W-Cap Henry | 59 | 20 |
| 40 | 3G-Ayrton Gennetten | 58 | 18 |
| 41 | 18T-Tanner Holmes | 31 | -10 |
| 42 | 9-Kasey Kahne | 54 | 12 |
| 43 | 2X-Lynton Jeffrey | 28 | -15 |
| 44 | 58-Kaleb Johnson | 78 | 34 |
| 45 | 17GP-Cale Thomas | 85 | 40 |
| 46 | 24T-Christopher Thram | 75 | 29 |
| 47 | 6B-Brandon Wimmer | 79 | 32 |
| 48 | 3-Tim Kaeding | 62 | 14 |
| 49 | 22X-J.J. Hickle | 64 | 15 |
| 50 | 27B-Jake Bubak | 89 | 39 |
This segment of seeds was less than stellar. 42 seedings were off by 10 spots or more in the seeding.
There were several people that outperformed their seeding by a significant margin. I did not put much faith in Cale Thomas teaming up with Mike Dutcher for the Knoxville Nationals, but the Thomas/Dutcher pairing improved every time they hit the racetrack and outperformed my seeding for them by 40 positions.
Positions 51-75
| 51 | 35-Zach Hampton | 61 | 10 |
| 52 | 42-Sye Lynch | 50 | -2 |
| 53 | 1M-Don Droud Jr. | 70 | 17 |
| 54 | 36-Jason Martin | 86 | 32 |
| 55 | 7S-Landon Crawley | 40 | -15 |
| 56 | 70-Kraig Kinser | 60 | 4 |
| 57 | 15H-Sam Hafertepe Jr. | 36 | -21 |
| 58 | Ryan Timms | NS | NA |
| 59 | 13JR-Mark Dobmeier | 69 | 10 |
| 60 | 22-Riley Goodno | 77 | 17 |
| 61 | 55-Kerry Madsen | 39 | -22 |
| 62 | 91-Kyle Reinhardt | 68 | 6 |
| 63 | 88-Austin McCarl | 17 | -46 |
| 64 | 52-Blake Hahn | 47 | -17 |
| 65 | 26-Zeb Wise | 34 | -31 |
| 66 | 24D-Danny Sams III | 74 | 8 |
| 67 | 45X-Jace Park | 73 | 6 |
| 68 | 44-Chris Martin | 72 | 4 |
| 69 | 14J-Jack Dover | 88 | 19 |
| 70 | 6-Kelby Watt | 63 | -7 |
| 71 | 6W-Dustin Selvage | 81 | 10 |
| 72 | 23R-Ryan Roberts | 100 | 28 |
| 73 | 11N-Kasey Jedrezek | 87 | 14 |
| 74 | 74-Xavier Doney | 90 | 16 |
| 75 | 53-Jessie Attard | 84 | 9 |
This group of drivers was not as far off as the previous one with most of the picks in the single digits or teens from their seeding. There were some misses with drivers that outperformed their seeds by a wide margin such as Jason Martin (+32) and Ryan Roberts (+28) and a handful that did not perform as well in Austin McCarl (-46), Zeb Wise (-31), Kerry Madsen (-22), and Sam Hafertepe Jr. (-21).
Positions 76-95
| 76 | 95-Tyler Drueke | 92 | 16 |
| 77 | 3P-Sawyer Phillips | 52 | -25 |
| 78 | 19H-Joel Myers, Jr. | 71 | -7 |
| 79 | 88T-Tanner Thorson | 30 | -49 |
| 80 | 1-Sammy Swindell | 66 | -14 |
| 81 | 23-Jimmy Light | 106 | 25 |
| 82 | 15JR-Cole Mincer | 99 | 17 |
| 83 | 14T-Brooke Tattnell | 65 | -18 |
| 84 | 1-Tasker Phllips | 29 | -55 |
| 85 | 87-Aaron Reutzel | 15 | -70 |
| 86 | 3N-Jake Neuman | 82 | -4 |
| 87 | 65-Jordan Goldeberry | 94 | 7 |
| 88 | 49J-Josh Schneiderman | 83 | -5 |
| 89 | J2-John Carney II | 91 | 2 |
| 90 | 2K-Kevin Ingle | 102 | 12 |
| 91 | 9H-Landon Hansen | 93 | 2 |
| 92 | 23M-Lance Moss | 104 | 12 |
| 93 | 27w-Weston Olson | 103 | 10 |
| 95 | 10V-Brian Paulus | 97 | 2 |
| 95 | G5-Gage Pulkrabek | 95 | 0 |
Jimmy Light was the star in this group, and why he was featured after the Friday program, by improving 25 positions on being seeded last. Cole Mincer (+17) and Tyler Drueke (+16) also did a good job moving forward.
Aaron Reutzel made the biggest drop in the seedings at -70. Tasker Phillips (-55), and Tanner Thorson (-49) were among the biggest misses in the entire seeding for me.
Gage Purkabek was the only seed I predicted correctly at 95.
DNS from Saturday
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| DNS | 27-Carson McCarl | 37 | NA |
| DNS | 101-Kalib Henry | 44 | NA |
| DNS | 25-Daison Pursley | 45 | NA |
| DNS | 4W-Jamie Ball | 46 | NA |
| DNS | 49X-Tim Shaffer | 55 | NA |
| DNS | 55T-McKenna Haase | 67 | NA |
| DNS | 73-Scotty Thiel | 76 | NA |
| DNS | 2M-Ryan Giles | 80 | NA |
| DNS | 8H-Jacob Hughes | 96 | NA |
| DNS | 15J-Jack Potter | 98 | NA |
| DNS | 44X-Scotty Johnson | 101 | NA |
| DNS | 28-Joe Perry | 105 | NA |
| DNS | 24-Terry McCarl | 38 | NA |
This group of drivers did not participate in Saturday’s finale. The highest seed not active in the finale was Terry McCarl at 38. Most in this group ran into serious issues at the Knoxville Nationals, and out of respect did not go back through and place the based on preliminary finishes.