T.J.’s Notebook: Breaking Down Point Performances at the Nationals

David Gravel (#2) and Donny Schatz (#15) race for the lead on Saturday at Knoxville Raceway. (Mark Funderburk photo)

By T.J. Buffenbarger

KNOXVILLE, Iowa (August 8, 2023) — Every year at the Knoxville Nationals one of the debates that takes place during the event centers around the format. The point system (seen on this page of the Knoxville Raceway website) used to determine the top 16 drivers locked into the Saturday night finale after a pair of preliminary nights is one of the most challenging in motorsports.

The format has been debated long before my first trip to the Nationals in 1995 from everyone from fans to drivers and everyone in between. Is qualifying weighted too much? Does your draw for time trials determine your week? Should feature position be weighted more than qualifying?

All are valid questions, and some I had some opinions on that were not based on any kind of actual evidence. I decided to look at some data to see if my thoughts were correct. What I discovered changed some of my thoughts on the format.

I chose a starting point as 2013 for my analysis. It was a point in time recent enough to be relevant and was the year 410 sprint cars went back to using tires supplied by Hoosier. I did exclude the “one and only” from 2020 being it was only a three-night format with fewer cars.

Knoxville Nationals champions since 2013…

Year Winner Prelim Qual Ord Qual Res Heat B-Main Prelim A Points Point Pos
2013 Donny Schatz Wed 14 8 5 3 10 456 20
2014 Donny Schatz Fri* 2 2 1 4 492 1
2015 Donny Schatz Wed 14 1 3 2 492 1
2016 Jason Johnson Thur 54 5 4 2 481 2
2017 Donny Schatz Wed 14 4 1 2 492 2
2018 Brad Sweet Thur 1 4 2 1 491 1
2019 David Gravel Thur 54 9 2 1 481 2
2021 Kyle Larson Thur 8 4 5 1 2 480 3
2022 Donny Schatz Wed 32 11 4 2 469 3
*Wednesday’s preliminary night was rained out in 2014 and ran on Friday.
Donny Schatz (Serena Dalhamer photo)

One of the opinions I held was how important it was to draw early to win the Knoxville Nationals. Clearly that thought was blown out of the water by Donny Schatz, David Gravel, and Jason Johnson. All of them drew numbers to the middle to end of qualifying on their preliminary night. Drawing a good number is a great help in winning the Nationals, but going out late doesn’t sink your chances.

It was interesting to see how 54 and 14 came up multiple times as a driver’s qualifying position in this breakdown but was purely coincidental.

Getting qualified in the top 10 is key to winning the Nationals no matter where you draw. With the point system weighing qualifying the same as the feature event, Schatz was the first since 2003 to qualify outside the top 10 on his preliminary night and win the main event, and he was only one spot out of cracking the top 10.

Getting through the heat race is important, but not required. Schatz has won his heat race twice during this time and won the Nationals but squeaking through in a transfer position is sufficient.

Getting on the podium for the preliminary feature is almost a requirement as well with seven of the nine years the winner finishing no worse than third on the preliminary night.

Revisiting this also made me appreciate Donny Schatz’s incredible run in 2013 even more. Schatz’s run from the B-Main to the win the Nationals in 2013 is one of the greatest driving accomplishments I have ever witnessed in person, but if you look at his rather average preliminary night having to rally from the B-Main to climb up to 10th on his preliminary night makes the accomplishment even more impressive.

Schatz also managed to have the two lowest point totals after his preliminary nights to win the Nationals during this span in 2013 and last year.

It doesn’t surprise me that Kyle Larson drove from the B-Main on his preliminary night to finish second in 2021 and is a not as well spotlighted moment that shows just how talented Larson is.

Highest in points after the preliminaries: How did they get there?

Year High Point Driver Prelmi Night Qual Ord Qual Heat B-Main Prelim A Point Total Sat A
2013 Joey Saldana Thur 1 1 4 5 483 7
2014 Donny Schatz Fri* 2 2 1 4 492 1
2015 Donny Schatz Wed 14 1 3 2 492 1
2016 Daryn Pittman Wed 20 1 4 4 485 4
2017 David Gravel Thur 8 1 1 1 500 21
2018 Brad Sweet Thur 1 4 2 1 491 1
2019 Aaron Reutzel Wed 22 2 2 5 487 5
2021 Giovanni Scelzi Wed 2 2 4 2 487 4
2022 Austin McCarl Thur 4 5 4 4 477 16
*Wednesday’s preliminary night was rained out in 2014 and ran on Friday.
David Gravel (Serena Dalhamer photo)

To be highest in points for your preliminary night the qualifying draw seems to matter more than it does winning the Nationals. Only two of the nine high point drivers since 2013 went out 20th or later in qualifying. Everyone else went out very early in qualifying.

The highest driver in points after Nationals has only won the event three times since 2013. To nobody’s surprise Schatz has done it twice in this period, but also shows how good Brad Sweet and Kasey Kahne Racing were in 2018.

David Gravel was close to joining that duo in 2017 with his perfect score, but a mechanical failure while leading made Gravel wait for a Knoxville Nationals title until 2019.

Others have not fared as well. While Giovanni Scelzi and Aaron Reutzel, and Daryn Pittman held on for top five finishes, others dropped back further in the field.

Take a deep breath, you are the last one in…

Year Last Driver In Prelim Qual Ord Qual Heat B-Main Prelim A Point Total Sat A
2013 Greg Hodnett Wed 8 15 4 4 457 12
2014 Tim Shaffer Fri* 40 8 3 24 434 24
2015 Rico Abreu Wed 41 10 5 3 8 456 24
2016 Jeff Swindell Wed 24 16 3 7 452 21
2017 Wayne Johnson Thur 20 13 4 6 457 23
2018 Terry McCarl Thur 35 24 4 5 455 23
2019 Lance Dewease Thur 24 11 2 14 451 23
2021 Danny Dietrich Wed 14 4 6 3 16 449 24
2022 Aaron Reutzel Wed 49 21 2 6 447 14
*Wednesday’s preliminary night was rained out in 2014 and ran on Friday with 20 cars locked into the finale from the preliminary nights instead of 16.
Rico Abreu (Serena Dalhamer photo)

The 16th and final driver to make it into the Knoxville Nationals A-Main through preliminary night points is often a good storyline at the Nationals. The emotions I’ve encountered from the driver in this position are happiness, relief, disappointment, and sometimes all three in one sitting.

The late Greg Hodnett was the only driver that went out to qualify in the top 10 and squeaked into the feature on the last point paying position after the preliminaries.

Like the previous Nationals champions and high point drivers, getting through the heat race is crucial as all the drivers were able to transfer except for Danny Dietrich and Rico Abreu. After that they were able to gain or maintain position in the preliminary feature to ensure they could take Friday to focus on a single race on Saturday.

This group also has some unique backstories. Rico Abreu secured this position in 2015, but had to depart for a NASCAR K&N Series Race and have Trevor Canales start and park his car in the feature. Lance Dewease showed up with the Kreitz 69K car with high expectations, but just avoided the B-Main.

Note that 2014 was an anomaly due to rain pushing the Wednesday preliminary night back to Friday and the program originally scheduled for Friday was contested on Saturday morning. When this occurs, the format reverts to the top 20 being locked in by points, the top 50 locked into the A, B, and C Mains, and the winner of the “Hard Knox” night gets the honor of starting 11th in the C.

In conclusion…

Some of the thoughts I have on the Nationals were not changed. I still feel you need to get through the preliminary night and be in the first few rows of Saturday’s finale. Unless one is capable of a Schatz like performance from 2013, keep your picks to the first three rows or less.

The one thing that did change in my mind is about the qualifying order. The driver and team that wins the Nationals has proven frequently during this time frame they can overcome the late number for qualifying. The cream will rise to the top.

While the top point driver after the preliminary nights might be a good story, look for the person that may have had to overcome more adversity during their preliminary night to secure a starting position up front in Saturday’s finale. They will be coming with a head of steam towards Saturday’s finale.