By T.J. Buffenbarger
KNOXVILLE, Iowa (August 9, 2023) — After great feedback from seeding Eldora Million I decided to take on the same task for the 62nd Knoxville Nationals.
The task turned out to be infinitely more difficult than the million due large number of driver and team changes leading into the event (including the morning of), larger number of cars, 20 less years of watching races at Knoxville compared to Eldora, and the split field.
Pushing this until mid-day Wednesday turned out to be a wise plan as there were entry changes right up through Wednesday morning.
The seeds are based on how I feel a driver will perform based on some statistical analysis, half-mile performance, and at times intuition.
I fully expect to be wrong at parts of this. Much like seeds in the NCCA tournament, I plan on some low seeds to perform better and some higher seeds to fall. This is all done for enjoyment though, and putting this together was time consuming by fun.
1-25
| 1 | David Gravel |
| 2 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | Rico Abreu |
| 4 | Brian Brown |
| 5 | Brad Sweet |
| 6 | Carson Macedo |
| 7 | Logan Schuchart |
| 8 | Donny Schatz |
| 9 | Brent Marks |
| 10 | James McFadden |
The number one seed has been consistent since starting the process with David Gravel holding down that position. Since the Eldora Million I’ve kept Gravel at the one seed due to showing speed everywhere they go and is a stellar qualifier, which impacts these seeds due to time trials being weighted heavily in the Knoxville Nationals format. Gravel also has a Nationals title to his credit, but is looking to give car owner Tod Quiring his first Nationals title.
Even without a lot of half mile races under his belt I was compelled to put Kyle Larson at the two seed for the Nationals. Larson is very good at Knoxville and with Paul Silva turning the wrenches I could not bring myself to seed him lower to second, even though the thought had crossed my mind a couple of times leading into the Nationals due Larson’s lack of starts on larger race track this season.
Rico Abreu was our top seed going into the Eldora Million and is driving with as much confidence as I’ve seen during his career. Abreu won the All Star Circuit of Champions event at Knoxville on July 29th, but before that I had Abreu in the top three seeds. Add Ricky Warner into the mix to give Abreu his best chance at winning the Nationals.
I originally had Brian Brown Brian Brown lower than the four but has risen the seeds by continuing to show good speed winning against the Outlaws here earlier this year coming off a 360 Nationals title. Brown seems as relaxed as I’ve seen him before Nationals and have a feeling this edition could have the same energy as 2014 when Brown led the finale for several laps before being passed by Donny Schatz.
Carson Macedo has dropped a little from my initial seeding but has the best chance to make my seedings look bad. Macedo appears to be back to full speed after his major crash at Knoxville during the World of Outlaws weekend. We have seen the magic Phillip Dietz can work on the wrenches at Knoxville, and Macedo has continually improved here.
I felt strong enough to place Logan Schuchart, Donny Schatz, and Brent Marks into the top 10, but not into the top five.
The driver that was the latest to move into the top 10 was James McFadden. Originally seeding him in the teens, McFadden’s steady improvement in recent weeks shows the team is peaking at the right time.
11-25
| 11 | Aaron Reutzel |
| 12 | Buddy Kofoid |
| 13 | Gio Scelzi |
| 14 | Austin McCarl |
| 15 | Justin Peck |
| 16 | Cory Eliason |
| 17 | Spencer Bayston |
| 18 | Justin Sanders |
| 19 | Zeb Wise |
| 20 | Parker Price-Miller |
| 21 | Anthony Macri |
| 22 | Sheldon Haudenschild |
| 23 | Justin Henderson |
| 24 | Sam Hafertepe |
| 25 | Corey Day |
Aaron Reutzel and Buddy Kofoid were in and out of the top 10 at different points in the process, but I ended up placing them just outside the top 10. I have a feeling they are the two drivers that have the highest chance of outperforming their seed.
Everyone else in this group I feel is even matched. There are several of the drivers below Reutzel and Kofoid I feel are interchangeable in their seedings.
I did place Justin Sanders just above Anthony Macri even though Macri has shown more speed of late in the Clauson-Marshall entry. If the Nationals were held three weeks later I would likely put Macri ahead of Sanders, but as of today I feel this is very close.
The trio of drivers I feel you do not want to sleep on are Justin Peck, Cory Eliason, and Zeb Wise. All three are prime big Nationals performances and if they can get through qualifying and the heat will make some noise this week.
Corey Day is wildly talented and if we were holding the Nationals on any ¼ track in the country I’d place him in the top five, but I feel still needs more time on half miles before breaking into a top 10 seed.
26-50
| 26 | Shane Stewart |
| 27 | Daryn Pittman |
| 28 | Lachlan McHugh |
| 29 | Kerry Madsen |
| 30 | Davey Heskin |
| 31 | Brock Zearfoss |
| 32 | Lynton Jeffrey |
| 33 | Jamie Veal |
| 34 | Tim Kaeding |
| 35 | Hunter Schuerenberg |
| 36 | Chase Randall |
| 37 | Ian Madsen |
| 38 | Ryan Timms |
| 39 | Kyle Reinhardt |
| 40 | Cole Macedo |
| 41 | Robbie Price |
| 42 | Tim Shaffer |
| 43 | Kasey Kahne |
| 44 | Chris Windom |
| 45 | Tasker Phillips |
| 46 | Blake Hahn |
| 47 | Brady Bacon |
| 48 | Sye Lynch |
| 49 | Colby Copeland |
| 50 | McKenna Haase |
I took some risk putting the two “retired” guys at 26 and 27 in Shane Stewart and Daryn Pittman. Both have so much experience at Knoxville and are with top mechanical help in Bernie Stuebgen and Guy Forbrook respectively.
Cap Henry has a knack to be able to go fast in cars he doesn’t have a lot of seat time in. Once I found out he was in the VanderEcken owned car with plenty of local experience at Knoxville, I felt a mid-seed was appropriate.
There are some drivers, like McKenna Haase, that are extremely good qualifiers and appear on this section of the seeding for Nationals due to the format, possibly higher than I would place them if I were doing this for a different event.
51-75
| 51 | Terry McCarl |
| 52 | Shane Golobic |
| 53 | Cap Henry |
| 54 | Sawyer Phillips |
| 55 | Ayrton Gennetten |
| 56 | Garet Williamson |
| 57 | Kraig Kinser |
| 58 | Brenham Crouch |
| 59 | Mark Dobmeier |
| 60 | Brooke Tatnell |
| 61 | Noah Gass |
| 62 | Chase Dietz |
| 63 | Riley Goodno |
| 64 | Carson McCarl |
| 65 | Bill Balog |
| 66 | Dylan Cisney |
| 67 | J.J. Hickle |
| 68 | Scott Bogucki |
| 69 | Clint Garner |
| 70 | Dustin Selvage |
| 71 | Jamie Ball |
| 72 | Tanner Carrick |
| 73 | Chris Martin |
| 74 | Tanner Holmes |
| 75 | Kaleb Johnson |
This group has a lot of Knoxville Raceway experience in it, but I was not convinced to move them up higher in the seeding. Of all the groups this one collectively is the one I could have undervalued.
Kraig Kinser, Brooke Tatnell, and J.J. Hickle have had some strong runs when expectations were not high at Knoxville. Some of the younger California talent like Tanner Holmes and Tanner Carrick are likely to outperform their seed.
76-105
| 76 | Don Droud Jr. |
| 77 | Dusty Zomer |
| 78 | Jake Bubak |
| 79 | Jordon Goldesberry |
| 80 | Kade Higday |
| 81 | Brandon Wimmer |
| 82 | Greg Wilson |
| 83 | Kalib Henry |
| 84 | Zach Hampton |
| 85 | Bill Rose |
| 86 | Matt Covington |
| 87 | Harli White |
| 88 | RJ Johnson |
| 89 | Cody Ihlen |
| 90 | Bill Wagner |
| 91 | Joe Simbro |
| 92 | Christopher Thram |
| 93 | Rusty Hickman |
| 94 | Ayden Gatewood |
| 95 | Landon Hansen |
| 96 | Gage Pulkrabek |
| 97 | AJ Moeller |
| 98 | Trent Pigdon |
| 99 | Matt Wasmund |
| 100 | Austin Bishop |
| 101 | Kevin Ingle |
| 102 | Frank Rogers |
| 103 | Ryan Roberts |
| 104 | Cole Mincer |
| 105 | Henry Edward |
Drivers near the top of this group such as Don Droud Jr, Dusty Zomer, Jake Bubak, Kaid Higday, and Brandon Wimmer could end up surprising me.
I’m also curious to see how R.J. Johnson fairs in his return to the Nationals along with several of the other drivers in this group I expect to outperform their seed.
In conclusion..
It was fun to attempt seeding the field again for a major event, but I am also glad to not have to do this for another 11 months. It is a monumental task that had significant differences than seeding the Eldora Million. In the end notes were made and some process changes will take place before I attempt this again in 2024.
Just like with the Eldora Million, look for a follow up column after I return from Knoxville something after I return to Michigan with the overall results of how I did versus the seeding.