By T.J. Buffenbarger
For my amusement, and possible humiliation, decided to make a second attempt at seeding the entire field for the Knoxville Nationals. In case you missed out on this last year, I started taking the entire entry list for the Nationals the Monday after the Kings Royal and seed them first through the final entry based on statistics, past Nationals performance, input from a select group of people I chose, and the “eye test” of what I’ve seen throughout the season.
Keep in mind based on the Knoxville Nationals format this endeavor is destined to fail based on the format alone. Some of the top seeds will fail while others in the middle to the bottom will flourish and become some of the best storylines of the event.
Just like last year I will recap the results against my seedings sometime on Monday for accountability. Anyone can make picks and leave them unanswered to move onto the next story. I’ve felt that making the choice to seed a driver in low seed and outperform it wide, I should have to answer for it after the event is complete.
One thing to note is the pool of drivers was pulled from the entry list as of Friday. If someone pulls out of the event or decides to enter after that point, they won’t show up until my recap next week and with them noted as being unseeded.
Seeds 1-10
| 1 | 2-David Gravel |
| 2 | 57-Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 15-Donny Schatz |
| 4 | 14-Corey Day |
| 5 | 18-Giovanni Scelzi |
| 6 | 7BC-Tyler Courtney |
| 7 | 49-Brad Sweet |
| 8 | 1S-Logan Schuchart |
| 9 | 41-Carson Macedo |
| 10 | 24R-Rico Abreu |
David Gravel is slotted as my #1 seed going early in the process and he has remained there throughout. Even Kyle Larson’s performance last weekend at Pevely didn’t sway me to move Gravel out of the top position. Gravel managed to come from the Friday program to finish second in last year’s finale. The biggest challenge for Gravel and company will be avoiding preliminary night disasters to set themselves up for success on Saturday.
The defending Knoxville Nationals champion Kyle Larson comes in at the two seed. At one point I had Larson a couple of spots lower before rationalizing he’s Kyle Larson with Paul Silva turning the wrenches. Pevely may have strengthened my thoughts of keeping him at the second slot.
Donny Schatz seems to be peaking at the right time during the season, showing a lot of speed since July. I did have Schatz ahead of Larson for a short period of time but had concerns with where Schatz could end up in qualifying on his prelim night even with his ability to pass cars.
Corey Day won a feature with the World of Outlaws earlier this season at Knoxville. Even with a couple of rough outings int the past month, I felt that I couldn’t drop Day out of the top five.
Giovanni Scelzi and Day I felt are interchangeable in the four and five slots. Scelzi is a former pole position winner at the Nationals and shows a lot of speed on every visit.
Tyler Courtney continually improves at Knoxville with the wing on, winning his first 360 Nationals title this past weekend. Courtney is starting to move towards contender for winning the 410 Nationals.
Brad Sweet, Logan Schuchart, and Carson Macedo all have performed well at Knoxville with Sweet being a former Nationals champion. I fully expect all of them to make Saturday’s finale, I just felt based on recent performances the others earned being slotted ahead of them. Until a couple of weeks after the Kings Royal I had Macedo as a lower seed out of the top 10, but over the past couple of weeks have moved him up based on performance and eye test that the Jason Johnson Racing team will be in top form this week.
Rico Abreu shows so much speed but can be tough to seed. I had him near the top of my Eldora Million and Knoxville Nationals seeds and did well in the preliminary nights, but that has not always translated to the finale. This was a tough call because I felt like this could be the year Abreu could outperform a seeding in the bottom of the top 10, but feel the others are just doing too well now to slot him higher even with the Capitani Classic victory on Sunday.
Seeds 11-25
| 11 | 83-Buddy Kofoid |
| 12 | 83JR-James McFadden |
| 13 | 13-Justin Peck |
| 14 | 69K-Daryn Pittman |
| 15 | 87-Aaron Reutzel |
| 16 | 17-Sheldon Haudenschild |
| 17 | 88-Austin McCarl |
| 18 | 21-Brian Brown |
| 19 | 9P-Parker Price-Miller |
| 20 | 39M-Anthony Macri |
| 21 | 27A-Emerson Axsom |
| 22 | 5-Spencer Bayston |
| 23 | 1A-Jacob Allen |
| 24 | 2KS-Chase Randall |
| 25 | 23-Garet Williamson |
The two seeds I’m most concerned with being wrong here at Daryn Pittman and Buddy Kofoid.
Pittman is defying all logic I’ve heard from drivers over the years about having “Outlaw Speed” and how important all the seat time is to winning the Nationals. Pittman and the Kreitz Racing team looked strong earlier in the year at Knoxville and were impressive last night at the Capitani Classic last night. The small group of people that run the seeds said Pittman should be higher, but I can’t get past the part time status even with the performance of the Kreitz car.
Kofoid has made the finale the past three years and is set up to step up his Knoxville Nationals performance in a big way this year. That level of consistency is difficult to seed out of the top 10, but just felt strongly about the other drivers.
I’m taking a chance on Emerson Axsom’s steady curve of improving performance leading into the Nationals with his seeding. Axsom looked strong up front during the 360 Knoxville Nationals until stumbling with lapped traffic. I believe this is a mistake Axsom won’t make again this week and the performance curve still trends upwards.
The other tough to seed drivers in this were Chase Randall and Garet Williamson. I’ve moved this duo of young up and coming drivers all over this section of seeds, but ended up with this just on the fringe even though Randall made the finale last year.
Seeds 26-50
| 26 | 10-Scott Bogucki |
| 27 | 19-Brent Marks |
| 28 | 2X-Lynton Jeffrey |
| 29 | 1-Tasker Phllips |
| 30 | 88T-Tanner Thorson |
| 31 | 18T-Tanner Holmes |
| 32 | 19s-Hunter Schuerenberg |
| 33 | 8-Cory Eliason |
| 34 | 26-Zeb Wise |
| 35 | 48-Danny Dietrich |
| 36 | 15H-Sam Hafertepe Jr. |
| 37 | 27-Carson McCarl |
| 38 | 24-Terry McCarl |
| 39 | 55-Kerry Madsen |
| 40 | 7S-Landon Simon |
| 41 | 1C-Brenham Crouch |
| 42 | 3Z-Brock Zearfoss |
| 43 | 21T-Cole Macedo |
| 44 | 101-Kalib Henry |
| 45 | 24-Daison Pursley |
| 46 | 4W-Jamie Ball |
| 47 | 52-Blake Hahn |
| 48 | 09-Matt Juhl |
| 49 | 55C-Chris Windom |
| 50 | 42-Sye Lunch |
This entire section is the most likely to blow up the seeding process. I started listing off drivers that were the most likely to outperform their seed, and honestly 26-40 are all drivers to keep an eye on that could make a run to lock in for Saturday’s finale.
Recent performances, lack of time this year at Knoxville, not running as many 410 races, and a host of other reasons apply to this entire section of drivers.
Scott Bogucki, Lynton Jeffrey, and Tanner Holmes all have shown good speed this year at Knoxville. Danny Dietrich seems to have light switch speed at times his year where things are going great or can go off the rails.
Hunter Schuerenberg is the one driver I feel could make the biggest move out of this group. Schuerenberg seems to jump in cars and show a lot of speed right away and looked strong on Sunday during the Capitani Classic.
Seeds 51-75
| 51 | 3J-Dusty Zomer |
| 52 | 3P-Sawyer Phillips |
| 53 | 17B-Bill Balog |
| 54 | 9-Kasey Kahne |
| 55 | 49X-Tim Shaffer |
| 56 | 99-Skylar Gee |
| 57 | 21H-Brady Bacon |
| 58 | 3G-Ayrton Gennetten |
| 59 | 33W-Cap Henry |
| 60 | 70-Kraig Kinser |
| 61 | 35-Zach Hampton |
| 62 | 3-Tim Kaeding |
| 63 | 6-Kelby Watt |
| 64 | 22X-J.J. Hickle |
| 65 | 14T-Brooke Tattnell |
| 66 | 1-Sammy Swindell |
| 67 | 55T-McKenna Haase |
| 68 | 91-Kyle Reinhardt |
| 69 | 13JR-Mark Dobmeier |
| 70 | 1M-Don Droud Jr. |
| 71 | 19H-Joel Myers, Jr. |
| 72 | 44-Chris Martin |
| 73 | 45X-Jace Park |
| 74 | 24D-Danny Sams III |
| 75 | 24T-Christopher Thram |
It’s the Knoxville Nationals and the field is loaded with talent. The cliché of this group of drivers could be an A-Main just about anywhere in the country applies here.
Of the drivers that have the most potential to bust my seeding, Kelby Watt shows the most promise with plenty of laps around Knoxville and showing speed in Bill Rose’s entry. I just was not comfortable putting them higher in seeding going into the biggest race of the year.
Dusty Zomer made the finale last year and had a strong Nationals but was not sure if we could see that type of performance two years in a row.
Others like Kasey Kahne and Tim Shaffer have shown speed this week at Knoxville. It’s wild to have a former Nationals champion this low in the order, but just felt the strength of the teams above them make this an uphill battle.
Others like J.J. Hickle have shown speed, but just have not put together performances this year that compelled me to give them a higher seed.
Seeds 76-106
| 76 | 73-Scotty Thiel |
| 77 | 22-Riley Goodno |
| 78 | 58-Kaleb Johnson |
| 79 | 6B-Brandon Wimmer |
| 80 | 2M-Ryan Giles |
| 81 | 6W-Dustin Selvage |
| 82 | 3N-Jake Neuman |
| 83 | 49J-Josh Schneiderman |
| 84 | 53-Jessie Attard |
| 85 | 17GP-Cale Thomas |
| 86 | 36-Jason Martin |
| 87 | 11N-Kasey Jedrezek |
| 88 | 14J-Jack Dover |
| 89 | 27B-Jake Bubak |
| 90 | 74-Xavier Doney |
| 91 | J2-John Carney II |
| 92 | 95-Tyler Drueke |
| 93 | 9H-Landon Hansen |
| 94 | 65-Jordan Goldeberry |
| 95 | G5-Gage Pulkrabek |
| 96 | 8H-Jacob Hughes |
| 97 | 10V-Brian Paulus |
| 98 | 15J-Jack Potter |
| 99 | 15JR-Cole Mincer |
| 100 | 23R-Ryan Roberts |
| 101 | 44X-Scotty Johnson |
| 102 | 2K-Kevin Ingle |
| 103 | 27w-Weston Olson |
| 104 | 23M-Lance Moss |
| 105 | 28-Joe Perry |
| 106 | 23-Jimmy Light |
There are still plenty of drivers capable of outracing their seed in this group. Kaleb Johnson won a 360 Nationals preliminary but is in a different car for the 410 Nationals and was unsure of the pairing to seed them higher.
Team DGRD had a solid 360 Knoxville Nationals and have entries for Brandon Wimmer and Dustin Selvage but felt uneasy moving them further up in the seeding fielding two cars at the 410 Nationals.
There are also some young up and coming stars like Kasey Jedrezek, Jake Bubak, and others that have the potential to outrace their seeding this week.
Jimmy Light is making me very nervous about his 106 seed after nearly making the inversion in qualifying last night for the Capitani Classic. Light is an infrequent competitor and a great personality that would appreciate outracing his 106 seed this week.