By T.J. Buffenbarger
(August 4, 2025) — One of the newest traditions on TJSlideways.com is seeding the entire Knoxville Nationals field. This came to be in 2023 for the Eldora Sprint Car Million where we seeded every entry from one to the final entry. The reaction to it was positive enough that it became part of our Knoxville coverage.
The inspiration for this came from a college football writer I enjoy reading that ranks every division one football team each week throughout the season. Keep in mind these seeds only pertain to the Knoxville Nationals and how I feel a driver/team will perform at that event.
After the Knoxville Nationals I go back and compare the seedings against how drivers performed. This is based off an event entry list as of just before the start of the Capitani Classic, so if a driver enters later or ends up having some sort of misfortune racing at Oskaloosa or going out the night before the Nationals, it won’t be reflected here.
It’s become a fun exercise that has triggered several fun interactions over the years. If you want to check out the previous seedings from 2023 and 2024 along with the results from 2023 and last year.
With that, let’s see how good (or terrible) this ends up being for the 2025 Knoxville Nationals.
1-10
| 1 | 57 – Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 24R – Rico Abreu |
| 3 | 2 – David Gravel |
| 4 | 14BC – Corey Day |
| 5 | 83 – Michael Kofoid |
| 6 | 41 – Carson Macedo |
| 7 | 21 – Brian Brown |
| 8 | 39M – Anthony Macri |
| 9 | 10 – Ryan Timms |
| 10 | 21T – James McFadden |
After two years of having David Gravel as the top seed I have learned that Kyle Larson is the top seed going into the biggest event in all of sprint car racing until I’m given a compelling reason to place him further down the list.
I made this decision final after the April 19th World of Outlaws program at Knoxville when Larson charged from 9th to 2nd position, and made it look easy. Knoxville Raceway is suited for Larson to use all his best traits when driving a sprint car, and with 50-laps to work with I feel there is a strong chance we see him go three-for-three in Saturday finals.
Rico Abreu has made a strong case to unseat Larson at the one seed. Second place at the Kings Royal and a strong showing all four nights at Eldora, winning the 360 Nationals, Abreu along with crew chief Ricky Warner and crew have been among the best, if not the best car in the country of late.
Abreu has been the best car on restarts of late, and if we see multiple caution flags in Saturday’s A-Main I feel Abreu will be tough to beat. Over a long green flag run though, I still lean towards Larson. Abreu has improved greatly over the past couple of seasons to be resilient when losing the lead, keeping his composure in the seat, and getting the lead back.
Until Abreu’s recent stretch I would say Gravel had the best car in the country. After two years of being the one seed coming into the event, I couldn’t bring myself to put Gravel at the one seed without winning either of those Knoxville Nationals A-Mains. I strongly believe if anyone besides Larson, Abreu, and Gravel win on Saturday it would be surprising.
Corey Day’s performance last season along with Jason Meyers being just as hungry for a Knoxville Nationals title as a car owner as he was a driver (or more so), I believe Day will be a major player this week for the win. Day was impressive last year and with a NASCAR future on the horizon one never knows if he will have the same kind of leeway Larson has to moonlight in sprint car racing.
Buddy Kofoid’s recent performance has led me to have him leap from Carson Macedo into the top five. I had these reversed up until the past three weeks. Kofoid has been coming through at big paying races all season and is improving at Knoxville. Macedo with Phillip Dietz on the wrenches is never one to be counted out at Knoxville as well, and I could not justify dropping him any lower in the order than sixth.
The local contingent at Knoxville has been strong this year. Brian Brown’s performance on July 12th coming from 16th starting spot to win, a fourth place at the Kings Royal, and a strong second place on July 26th is showing this could be one of Brown’s best shots at the Nationals since 2014 when he led laps in the finale before being overtaken by Donny Schatz.
Anthony Macri is rated the highest of the PA Posse drivers. Winning a Kings Royal and his performance last year at Knoxville Nationals warranted a top 10 position in the seeds going into Knoxville Nationals week.
I’m bullish on Ryan Timms, who I feel is going to have a standout Nationals. Timms has been fast everywhere this season, but especially at Knoxville. Austin McCarl has been solid at Knoxville of late and I feel should be in Saturday’s finale with a solid performance.
James McFadden and I had a discussion at Eldora during Kings Royal weekend about having a shorter period in the United States this year to get used to the different wing and tire rules. Based on his dominant Capitani Classic win, I think McFadden and the Tarlton Racing team have figured those things out.
11-24
| 11 | 49 – Brad Sweet |
| 12 | 1S – Logan Schuchart |
| 13 | 7BC – Giovanni Scelzi |
| 14 | 55 – Kerry Madsen |
| 15 | 71P – Parker Price Miller |
| 16 | 48 – Danny Dietrich |
| 17 | 17 – Sheldon Haudenschild |
| 18 | 17B – Bill Balog |
| 19 | 88 – Austin McCarl |
| 20 | 15 – Donny Schatz |
| 21 | 87 – Justin Sanders |
| 22 | 19 – Brent Marks |
| 23 | 13 – Daison Pursley |
| 24 | 23 – Garet Williamson |
I’m not a fan of big changes before the Nationals, and that is why you see Giovanni Scelzi and Brad Sweet further down the list. Scelzi won a preliminary night last year, but I would have liked to see him get more time in the Clauson-Marshall Racing entry before Nationals. The same goes with Sweet working with some different team members with Kasey Kahne Racing. Even though the crew members are familiar with Sweet, I feel the timing of the change is inopportune, but not enough to keep him out of Saturday’s finale. Otherwise, both would likely be in the top five of the seeds.
Even though it’s a late addition, Justin Sanders has been impressive enough in the Ridge and Son’s Racing entry. Sanders tends to fly under the radar Nationally, but people that pay attention know what a beast he can be out on the west coast. Sanders has made the Nationals A-Main before and will be formidable in a car that runs well at Knoxville this year.
I’m not ready to send Donny Schatz to the B or C-Main level yet. Schatz did squeak into Saturday’s A-Main by winning the Friday program, transferring through is heat race after a car that finished ahead of him was light at the scales.
Austin McCarl and Kerry Madsen have carried tremendous speed at Knoxville all season and I expect them to qualify and race well this week.
On the PA Posse side of things Danny Dietrich has speed with his team that has traveled well this year, and I believe that it should translate into an A-Main starting position on Saturday.
On the PA/High Limit side it’s not been a great season by Brent Marks standards but felt he still has a great chance of putting his car in Saturday’s A-main. The same could be said for Logan Schuchart and Sheldon Haudenschild. Haudenschild gave me some pause putting him up at the 17th slot but tends to come through at the Nationals recently regarding making the Saturday feature.
Daison Pursley and Garet Wiliamson I felt showed enough speed at Knoxville that I felt it was warranted putting them in the top group.
Parker Price-Miller has been fast in the Indy Race Parts entry and typically runs well at Knoxville, and I expect 2025 to be the same.
Bill Balog may surprise some people after his rough string of luck around Kings Royal weekend. Balog made the race last year and I feel has a great chance to do so again. Typically, I like a team to have more momentum going into a big race weekend than Balog, but I stuck to some gut feeling on this one and left Balog among the top group.
25-48
| 25 | 2C – Cole Macedo |
| 26 | 14 – Spencer Bayston |
| 27 | 18 – Emerson Axsom |
| 28 | 27 – Carson McCarl |
| 29 | 18T – Tanner Holmes |
| 30 | 2M – J.J. Hickle |
| 31 | 1A – Ashton Torgerson |
| 32 | 7s – Chris Windom |
| 33 | 26 – Justin Peck |
| 34 | 3L – Daryn Pittman |
| 35 | 42 – Sye Lynch |
| 36 | 88T – Tanner Thorson |
| 37 | 9R – Chase Randall |
| 38 | 6K – Kaleb Johnson |
| 39 | 3 – Ayrton Gennetten |
| 40 | 21H – Brady Bacon |
| 41 | 6 – Zach Hampton |
| 42 | 7TZ – Tasker Phillips |
| 43 | 15h – Sam Hafertepe Jr. |
| 44 | 3Z – Brock Zearfoss |
| 45 | 4W – Jamie Ball |
| 46 | 23D – Chase Dietz |
| 47 | 44 – Chris Martin |
| 48 | 39 – Lynton Jeffrey |
At this point in the seeding I typically run through and tell you who I think could outperform their seed. In this case I could list all 24 drivers in this group.
From Cole Macedo, who I nearly put into the end of the top group, to drivers like Jamie Ball and Chase Dietz, if any of these drivers get a decent qualifying time, I feel they have the ability to lock into Saturday’s A-Main.
The reasons why drivers appear in this group range from the newness of combinations like Emerson Axsom in the KCP Racing car and Daryn Pittman in the Lunstra Motorsports entry.
Some could just be prior performance this season such as Spencer Bayston and Chase Randall but have shown the capability to make big races such as the Knoxville Nationals finale. Others like Sam Hafertepe Jr. and J.J. Hickle just tend to have terrible luck with the Nationals.
49-72
| 49 | 27B – Jake Bubak |
| 50 | 33W – Cap Henry |
| 51 | 5 – Brenham Crouch |
| 52 | 6B – Brandon Wimmer |
| 53 | 22 – Riley Goodno |
| 54 | 45X – Landon Crawley |
| 55 | 24 – Terry McCarl |
| 56 | 25 – Tim Kaeding |
| 57 | 19H – Kevin Thomas, Jr. |
| 58 | 52 – Blake Hahn |
| 59 | 12X – Hank Davis |
| 60 | 17GP – Tim Shaffer |
| 61 | 83H – Justin Henderson |
| 62 | 40 – Clint Garner |
| 63 | 24D – Danny Sams III |
| 64 | 4C – Cam Martin |
| 65 | 99 – Skylar Gee |
| 66 | 36 – Jason Martin |
| 67 | 55S – Hunter Schuerenberg |
| 68 | 3P – Sawyer Phillips |
| 69 | 5W – Lucas Wolfe |
| 70 | 11N – Kasey Jedrzejek |
| 71 | 51 – Joel Myers Jr |
| 72 | 09 – Matt Juhl |
The further I go down the list, the more difficult it becomes to place these. Of the group from 49 down Jake Bubak, Cap Henry, Brandon Wimmer, Terry McCarl, and Tim Kaeding I feel could outperform their seeds. Wimmer called me out last year when I seeded him in the 70’s and he managed to exceed that by over 30 positions.
Drivers such as Justin Henderson appear in this group just from a lack of seat time at Knoxville this year.
73-102
| 73 | 2KS-Brooke Tatnell |
| 74 | 32B – Brandon Spithaler |
| 75 | 28M – Conner Morrell |
| 76 | 67 – Justin Whittall |
| 77 | 1 – Sammy Swindell |
| 78 | 4 – Matt Wasmund |
| 79 | 24T – Christopher Thram |
| 80 | 23L – Jimmy Light |
| 81 | 95 – Tyler Drueke |
| 82 | 45C – Derek Hagar |
| 83 | 49J – Josh Schneiderman |
| 84 | 1K – Kelby Watt |
| 85 | 74 – Xavier Doney |
| 86 | 65 – Jordan Goldesberry |
| 87 | 8H – Jacob Hughes |
| 88 | 85J – Logan Julian |
| 89 | 1D – Thomas Meseraull |
| 90 | 17A – Jack Anderson |
| 91 | 16g – Austyn Gossel |
| 92 | 10W-Mathew VanderVere |
| 93 | 4X – Heath Nestrick |
| 94 | 44X – Scotty Johnson |
| 95 | 121 – RJ Johnson, Tampa, FL |
| 96 | 71 – Brandon Worthington |
| 97 | 23W – Scott Winters |
| 98 | 15JR – Cole Mincer |
| 100 | 15J – Jack Potter |
| 101 | G5 – Gage Pulkrabek |
| 102 | 199 – Henry Edward |
The reasons you see drivers here are like the previous group with reasoning behind lack of seat time and performance so far this season.
If Brooke Tatnell had more laps this season in a 410 at Knoxville Raceway, I’d likely move him higher up the seeding based on the 2KS car’s potential.
Thomas Meseraull has potential to make me look terrible with this seeding. One more year of seat time at Knoxville and I likely would have moved him up the list.
It feels strange to put a legend like Sammy Swindell down this far on the list, but with the experimental nature of his race car I could’nt bring myself to seed him higher up the list.