By T.J. Buffenbarger
(August 11, 2025) – The 2025 edition of Seeding the Knoxville Nationals is in the history books and it’s time to see how accurate I was seeding the entire field from top to bottom. If you want to check out the previous seedings from 2023 and 2024 along with the results from 2023 and last year.
To accomplish this, I took the entire field from Saturday and based their result on their finish in the A through D-Mains. Anyone that did not show up on Saturday I just assigned a “DNS”, because if someone had issues that were bad enough that running the final night was not an option or desired, there is no value in throwing salt in the wound.
Finishers 1-10: Not too shabby…
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 1 | 10-Ryan Timms | 9 | 8 |
| 2 | 24R-Rico Abreu | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 2-David Gravel | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 41-Carson Macedo | 6 | 2 |
| 5 | 1S-Logan Schuchart | 12 | 7 |
| 6 | 14BC-Corey Day | 4 | -2 |
| 7 | 7BC-Giovanni Scelzi | 13 | 6 |
| 8 | 23-Garet Williamson | 24 | 16 |
| 9 | 88-Austin McCarl | 19 | 10 |
| 10 | 17-Sheldon Haudenschild | 17 | 7 |
I’m likely not the only one that missed out on picking Ryan Timms to win the Knoxville Nationals final on Saturday, but I was not very far off with his seeding at a +8. I feel decent about that.
Nailing Rico Abreu and David Gravel’s seeding was surprising, especially with the issues Gravel faced earlier in the week. Being close on Carson Macedo and Corey Day along with being somewhat close with Giovanni Scelzi after switching over the Clauson/Marshall Racing right before the Nationals was nice to see as well.
I did swing and miss on Garrett Williamson and Austin McCarl, who I had in and around the A-Main but not that far up in the order. I also unvalued Sheldon Haudenschild, who had a solid week at Knoxville.
Finishers 11-24: I was not day-drinking when I made this list….
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 11 | 15-Donny Schatz | 20 | 9 |
| 12 | 19-Brent Marks | 22 | 10 |
| 13 | 4C-Cameron Martin | 64 | 51 |
| 14 | 26-Justin Peck | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | 18-Emerson Axsom | 27 | 12 |
| 16 | 71P-Parker Price Miller | 15 | -1 |
| 17 | 21T-James McFadden | 10 | -7 |
| 18 | 2C-Cole Macedo | 26 | 8 |
| 19 | 57-Kyle Larson | 1 | -18 |
| 20 | 49-Brad Sweet | 11 | -9 |
| 21 | 83-Michael Kofoid | 5 | -16 |
| 22 | 14-Spencer Bayston | 26 | 4 |
| 23 | 3L-Daryn Pittman | 34 | 11 |
| 24 | 17B-Bill Balog | 18 | -6 |
Of all the seeds on here getting Parker Price-Miller in the Indy Race Parts entry within a single spot surprised me, otherwise this section shows how terribly wrong I was.
Some of the people that had viewed the list before posting it thought I overvalued Spencer Bayston to the point of where he should have been a B or C-Main car but held to my belief that Bayston and Jason Meyers Racing could pull that off even with Bayston’s lame duck status.
On the other side of the ladder missing Cameron Martin by 51 positions was painful along with only having two seeds withing five positions of where they finished in the overall order.
I am proud to say I put Donny Schatz in the A-Main based on my seeding but should have anticipated him running better when he got there.
Overvaluing James McFadden’s Capitani Classic performance was a miss on my part as well.
By consensus, based on recent performance, Justin Peck and Rudeen Racing surprised us by how far they outperformed their seeding.
Most of the other big misses on this list, such as Buddy Kofoid and Kyle Larson, were from teams that ran into issues during Saturday’s program.
Finishers 25-48: Pain…. lots of pain.
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 25 | 39-Lynton Jeffrey | 48 | 23 |
| 26 | 39M-Anthony Macri | 8 | -18 |
| 27 | 7S-Chris Windom | 32 | 5 |
| 28 | 48-Danny Dietrich | 16 | -12 |
| 29 | 1A-Ashton Torgerson | 31 | 2 |
| 30 | 55V-Kerry Madsen | 14 | -16 |
| 31 | 33W-Cap Henry | 50 | 19 |
| 32 | 13-Daison Pursley | 23 | -9 |
| 33 | 45C-Derek Hagar | 82 | 49 |
| 34 | 15H-Sam Hafertepe Jr | 43 | 9 |
| 35 | 99-Skylar Gee | 65 | 30 |
| 36 | 83H-Justin Henderson | 61 | 25 |
| 37 | 9R-Chase Randall | 37 | 0 |
| 38 | 1-Sammy Swindell | 77 | 39 |
| 39 | 3P-Sawyer Phillips | 68 | 29 |
| 40 | 23D-Chase Dietz | 46 | 6 |
| 41 | 17A-Jack Anderson | 90 | 49 |
| 42 | 3Z-Brock Zearfoss | 44 | 2 |
| 43 | 5W-Lucas Wolfe | 69 | 26 |
| 44 | 1K-Kelby Watt | 84 | 40 |
| 45 | 87-Justin Sanders | 21 | -24 |
| 46 | 22-Riley Goodno | 53 | 7 |
| 47 | 27-Carson McCarl | 28 | -19 |
| 48 | 24T-Christopher Thram | 79 | 31 |
Hitting Chase Randall’s finish was surprising based on his seeding at 37. Having only eight of 24 seeds withing 10 or less of their original position was painful.
Jack Anderson shocked the world at Knoxville and myself going a +49 and for a while on Saturday was making a run a being the biggest seed improvement since I started doing this in 2024.
Derek Hagar (+49) also joined Anderson in the +49 club. Others I undervalued significantly included Kelby Watt (+40), Sammy Swindell (+39), Christopher Thram (+31), Skylar Gee (+30) and Sawyer Phillips (+29).
Don’t underestimate veteran drivers that do not make a lot of starts like Justin Henderson (+25).
Against my better judgement I had some talk me into a higher seed for Justin Sanders, but even my original seed would not have been far off the -24 positions in the final order.
For the most part everyone on this list did way better than I thought they would at the 2025 Knoxville Nationals.
49-72: This makes does not make sense…
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 49 | 1TZ-Tasker Phillips | 42 | -7 |
| 50 | 21H-Brady Bacon | 40 | -10 |
| 51 | 2M-JJ Hickle | 30 | -21 |
| 52 | 44-Chris Martin | 47 | -5 |
| 53 | 17GP-Tim Shaffer | 60 | 7 |
| 54 | 6B-Brandon Wimmer | 52 | -2 |
| 55 | 27B-Jake Bubak | 49 | -6 |
| 56 | 2KS-Brooke Tatnell | 73 | 17 |
| 57 | 18T-Tanner Holmes | 29 | -28 |
| 58 | 25-Tim Kaeding | 56 | -2 |
| 59 | 74-Xavier Doney | 85 | 26 |
| 60 | 45X-Landon Crawley | 54 | -6 |
| 61 | 24D-Danny Sams III | 63 | 2 |
| 62 | 3-Ayrton Gennetten | 39 | -23 |
| 63 | 53-Jack Dover | NA | NA |
| 64 | 19H-Kevin Thomas Jr | 57 | -7 |
| 65 | 49J-Josh Schneiderman | 83 | 18 |
| 66 | 85J-Logan Julien | 88 | 22 |
| 67 | 32B-Brandon Spithaler | 74 | 7 |
| 68 | 40-Clint Garner | 62 | -6 |
| 69 | G5-Gage Pulkrabek | 101 | 32 |
| 70 | 28M-Conner Morrell | 75 | 5 |
| 71 | 15JR-Cole Mincer | 98 | 27 |
| 72 | 44X-Scotty Johnson | 94 | 22 |
After missing big on 11-24 and 24-48, this 49-72 had 12 of the 24 seeds within 10 or less of their position, which to me makes no sense this far down in the order.
I missed Brandon Wimmer’s seed by 32 positions last year and got called out publicly by him for it, I had Wimmer’s performance within two positions this year. Tim Kaeding was also a driver I was encouraged to move higher but stuck to my intuition and was rewarded by only being off by two positions.
Congratulations to Gage Bulkrabek (+32 after being essentially seeded last), Cole Mincer (+27), Xaiver Doney (+26), and Scotty Johnson (+22) for outperforming their seeds by a punch, I was wrong.
On the other hand, Tanner Holmes at a -28 was painful. I knew there was a high probability of missing Holmes seed high or low by a significant margin, but felt he had enough momentum coming into Nationals that it was more likely for him to outperform it.
I thought Ayrton Gennetten and J.J. Hickle were also lined up for a strong week based on past Knoxville performances, and that appeared to be accurate early on before putting up a -23 and -21 respectively.
72-82: Feast or Famine
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| 73 | 23L-Jimmy Light | 80 | 7 |
| 74 | 4-Matt Wasmund | 78 | 4 |
| 75 | 15J-Jack Potter | 100 | 25 |
| 76 | 09-Matt Juhl | 72 | -4 |
| 77 | 10W-Matt VanderVere | 92 | 15 |
| 78 | 8-Jacob Hughes | 87 | 9 |
| 79 | 55-Hunter Schuerenberg | 67 | -12 |
| 80 | 5-Brenham Crouch | 51 | -29 |
| 81 | 6-Zach Hampton | 41 | -40 |
| 82 | 65-Jordan Goldesberry | 86 | 4 |
This group of seeds was the most unusual. Five of the seeds were nine or less of where I seeded them while the remaining six were off by 12 or more positions.
Zach Hampton’s broken left radius rod dropped him to a -40 while Jack Potter ended up outperforming my expectations for him at the Nationals by 25 positions.
DNS: Don’t kick people while there are down….
If you don’t end up running the program on Saturday (or at all), we don’t place you in the final order. Those drivers and teams typically had awful weeks, and going back through the earlier days in the program to assign them a finish is just throwing salt in the wound.
| Finish | Driver | Seed | +/- |
| DNS | 1D-Thomas Meseraull | 89 | NA |
| DNS | 4W-Jamie Ball | 95 | NA |
| DNS | 6K-Kaleb Johnson | 96 | NA |
| DNS | 11-Roger Crockett | 97 | NA |
| DNS | 11N – Kasey Jedrzejek | 10 | NA |
| DNS | 12X – Hank Davis | 76 | NA |
| DNS | 16g – Austyn Gossel | NA | NA |
| DNS | 21-Brian Brown | 91 | NA |
| DNS | 23W-Scottt Winers | 81 | NA |
| DNS | 24-Terry McCarl | 71 | NA |
| DNS | 36-Jason Martin | 70 | NA |
| DNS | 42-Sye Lynch | 66 | NA |
| DNS | 51 – Joel Myers Jr | 59 | NA |
| DNS | 52-Blake Hahn | 58 | NA |
| DNS | 67-Justin Whitall | 55 | NA |
| DNS | 71 – Brandon Worthington | 45 | NA |
| DNS | 88-Tanner Thorson | 38 | NA |
| DNS | 95-Tyler Drueke | 36 | NA |
| DNS | 121-RJ Johnson | 35 | NA |
In conclusion….
I was surprised the 49-72 seeds were so close and missing on the 25-48 seeds by a significant margin. I anticipated making more mistakes further down in the order.
Otherwise, this year turned out about as I expected given the unpredictable nature of the Knoxville Nationals program and having drivers and teams higher in the order that encounter issues and can throw the seeding off by wide margins.
These seeds came to exist on the website for the Knoxville Nationals due to the homework I was already doing to prepare for the event. If I’m already doing the work, I might as well produce something different that all of you can enjoy, which you did in large numbers, and I appreciate the comments on this throughout the week.